April 24, 2025 AM Plan

Yesterday we opened with a huge bull gap up, a further push up in the morning, with a violent, then slow sell off to digest the move.

Zooming out, the move yesterday couldn't push higher than 5500. Until that firmly breaks above my base case is that we revisit the low at 4820 before we decide if we've truly bottomed or heading lower.

If everyone is expecting this though, I wouldn't be entirely surprised to see we just rip through 5500 and leave everyone behind. Regardless, I don't need to predict to profit. I need to have a plan and react to what price is actually doing.

The 4h SPY chart is rangebound between 508 and 547. While we are rangebound, this range is huge and very tradable. CaSPar. The 4h SPX chart naturally showing a similar range, but the ribbon is firmly downward biased, with a potential ivommy forming. It's important to be aware and keep tabs on how price reacts to the opening gap created yesterday.

The hourly stalled out at previous highs, but firmly bullish now and potentially flagging. Current the multiday call trigger // the h48 are acting as firm support. Until that breaks there's no reason to consider puts unless we're at the top of the range and unable to break out.

MORNING PLAN

Looks like we're going to open up in the trigger box, so extra patience is required. It's so much easier to wait for clear direction than to force a trade early. There's always another opportunity 'late' and actually tend to be the more lucrative and clearer setups.

HTF bias is up. 10m bias is also up. So far dips to the 10/21 have held and pushed ~20 points. Any dips to the 10/21, 10/48, PDL, PMLo should be considered buyable dips. It's important to be mindful that there is 10m divergence forming with EHs in price with LHs in stochastic. This coupled with the hourly being slights down could lead to continuation of downside. Though divergence only preempts mean reversion. Not all divergences turn into reversals, but all reversals start with divergence. A move to 10/21 is likely. We'll reach to price when we get there, with a bias to entering calls. Exiting at premarket high, with runners up to the call trigger.