April 22, 2025 Plan

Other obligations kept me from getting to the candles until 2p.

When I first started teaching myself technical analysis, I used a service to backtest certain technical confluences and their resulting 3, 6, and 12 month forward returns. One of the similarities I found at the 'bottoms' of 2000 and GFC was if the 50 day SMA < 200 day SMA and we start moving from below 2 standard deviations from the 200 day sma, to within 2, that signifies the start of a bottoming process. I created email alerts for this exact stipulation. I last got alerted to these conditions starting April 27, 2022 thru May 5th 2022 and again on May 26, 2022 and June 24, 2022.

Looking back at that time, we made on attempt lower, with a higher low on the stochastic! before ultimately bottoming and ripping from there.

I bring this up because I just received my first notice today. Something to keep tabs on!

To today:

We're still very much bearish on the higher time frames. Despite opening near the high end of yesterday's range, ripping higher, we've since seen a pretty hard rejection of the daily ribbon. As the daily ribbon continues to act as resistance, my base case is a move lower to the previous low set earlier this month.

The 4h/21 continues to be tested, and again acting as a great spot to short. Things get a little more complicated on the hourly chart. So far today we've essentially filled the Monday morning gap created by opening well below Friday's LOD. Today we've created a bull gap as we're trying to ivom/reverse on the hourly. The h21 is beginning to flip, and turn positive. I'm not ready to turn full bull yet in the short term, but this is constructive so far. We've initially rejected Friday's high, failing to make a higher high, but a retest of the ribbon and the MD put trigger is not unwarranted.

Plan for today

The 10m ribbon is bullish. We've hit the 786 which leaves a ~60% of hitting +1 ATR by EOD, especially since most the move up was premarket. The 10/21 is flipping negative, but the hourly is firmly bullish and we've had almost an hour trying to break down the 10/48 // yesterdays HOD. If we reclaim and hold the 10/21 and 618, that is confirmation of continuation to at least come close to the HOD if not break it on it's way to +1 ATR. The scalp bear opportunity is a reject of the 618 with another retest of the previous HOD. If previous HOD breaks, I'd be cautious shorting any further despite a 10m vommy, because the H21 is just below.